We've spent this run on soil, pests, and disease — the things you can manage in your own grow space. This week we're looking at something much bigger than any of us: a very strong El Niño is forecast to shape the entire summer ahead. Here's what it is, what it means for South African growers specifically, and why patience might be the smartest move on the table right now.
El Niño Is Coming — What Every South African Grower Needs to Know
Spring Day has already come and gone, and plenty of growers have rushed to get seeds and clones in the ground. But the World Meteorological Organisation is forecasting one of the strongest El Niño events in decades, with below-normal rainfall and above-normal heat expected across most of South Africa this summer. Here's what that actually means, and why waiting a little longer might be the wiser call.
Every grow season carries some uncertainty. This one carries more than most. The World Meteorological Organisation says forecasts from its Global Producing Centres indicate an "exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%" that El Niño will persist through February 2027 — the first time a WMO El Niño update has ever been that unequivocal. Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, the event is expected to strengthen further in the coming months, peaking toward the end of this year, with impacts continuing well into 2027.
If you haven't come across El Niño before, or only vaguely know the term from the news, this week is about making sure every grower — hobbyist or commercial — understands exactly what's coming and how to plan around it.
What El Niño Actually Is
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most powerful naturally occurring climate patterns on Earth. El Niño itself is characterised by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years, lasts around nine to twelve months, generally begins developing between March and June, and reaches peak intensity between November and February — though its effects on global temperature can extend well beyond that, often being most pronounced in the year after the event develops.
Importantly, El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change — but it operates on top of a warming planet, which is part of why forecasters are watching this particular event so closely. This year's El Niño developed earlier than usual, and the widely used Niño 3.4 index — which tracks sea-surface temperature anomalies in the region at the heart of the pattern — climbed from an average of +1.5°C above normal in May–July 2026 to weekly readings between +2.2°C and +2.6°C above average by mid-August. Even more striking, subsurface ocean temperatures in some areas were measured at more than 8°C above average during the same window, a sign of just how much heat is banked up and ready to influence the atmosphere in the months ahead.
Why This Is a Genuinely Tougher Season to Plan For
In the agricultural sector, El Niño conditions typically bring below-normal rainfall and high temperatures that can produce dry conditions and heat stress — historically a contributor to crop failure and livestock losses where risk-reduction measures aren't in place. Water restrictions often follow low rainfall and tend to hit irrigation-dependent growers hardest. On top of the direct heat and drought stress, hot conditions during summer are also usually associated with related pest and disease pressure, which means the scouting habits already covered in this series matter even more this season, not less.
Winter rainfall areas have already experienced a shortage moving into spring, and even where typical winter conditions have persisted in summer rainfall regions, forecasters expect that below-normal rainfall and high temperatures will make the transition into summer more difficult than usual this year.
Why There's No Rush to Plant Just Yet
Spring Day has come and gone, and it's a safe bet plenty of growers have already jumped on seeds and clones, on schedule with tradition. But traditions built around a "normal" season don't necessarily hold up against a very strong El Niño year — and the honest truth is that nobody, including the WMO itself, can tell you exactly how severe conditions will be in your specific area until the pattern is further along.
"The strength of an El Niño event alone does not determine how severe its impacts will be in any individual country or region."
That uncertainty cuts both ways — but for a grower without a commercial deadline hanging over the season, it argues strongly for patience rather than urgency. If you're growing purely for yourself, there's genuinely no need to rush a seed or clone into the ground the moment the calendar says spring. Giving it another month, and watching how conditions actually develop through late September and October, costs you very little and could save you from establishing a plant right into the worst of an early, intense heat and dry spell.
Practical Prep for the Season Ahead
Proactive Resilience: Your Garden, Your Control
It is easy to look at climate forecasts, heat maps, and drought warnings and feel entirely at the mercy of the weather. But cannabis is, at its core, a highly adaptable, deeply resilient plant—a weed that has survived extreme climates for millennia. You are not helpless against a harsh summer. The choices you make right now give you massive leverage over how this season unfolds.
By heavily mulching your beds, establishing deep root systems, banking water early, and cultivating a biologically active rhizosphere, you create a localized microclimate that insulates your plants against the worst of the macroclimate. In fact, many master growers argue that controlled drought and heat stress—when managed by an attentive grower—can actually force the plant to produce thicker resins and more complex terpene profiles as a natural defense mechanism. Treat this El Niño not as a disaster waiting to happen, but as a masterclass in reading your garden. The growers who prepare now won’t just survive the heat; they will cultivate stronger, more resilient flowers because of it.

